Hadley Taylor Blog
At Hadley Taylor we like to keep our clients updated on the latest local property news and opinion.
How will increase in CGT affect the property market?
There is much speculation that the Government will increase capital gains tax at the budget as part of its attempts to reduce the budget deficit. Much of this speculation is I believe media driven and although I think we are going to see an increase, I don’t think it will be nearly as scary as some are predicting. I believe this for two reasons. Firstly, I don’t think our new chancellor is in the habit of political suicide and second, the wealth creators have to go on doing just that, creating wealth, and too much of an uplift on CGT would be counter productive in the long run.
So what effect will an increase have on the property market? Will landlords rush to sell? The answer to this will depend on the level of increase. If we have a modest increase I don’t predict a rush to dispose of investment properties. Professional landlords with large portfolios who are in it for the long haul tend to buy and not sell so I don’t think an increase in CGT will impact much on this group. Many amateur landlords who jumped on the band wagon during the past decade in search of an easy buck have already come unstuck and are no longer in the game. Accidental landlords, of whom many have been created during the past three years, will feel under most pressure to exit the market.
So I am expecting a welcome increase in instructions of small flats and houses in the city during the next few months but not the sort of surge in disposals that would lead to instability in the market and a drop in property values.
Why pay an estate agent to sell your house?
Why pay an estate agent to sell your house? Why not do it yourself? Why indeed, but let’s look at this in more detail.
Of course sellers want to keep the costs of sale to minimum but they also want to achieve the best price for their most valuable asset. These are often incompatible objectives. Anyone can sell a house but it takes experience, skill, tenacity, local knowledge and patience as well as the right routes to market to achieve the optimum price for a property. If the seller is equipped with all of these, then my advice is to go ahead and sell it yourself and save the fee.
In reality sellers tend not to be trained in the art of negotiation, they may not be on hand to take viewings at the drop of a hat whenever potential purchasers want to view. They may not wish to sit by a phone all day in case there is an enquiry and they may not want to pay several hundred pounds for an advertisement in the EDP property supplement. They will not have access to tried and tested property portals such as rightmove.co.uk and they certainly won’t have a list of people actively looking for a house in their area and in the required price bracket as will a good local independent estate agent.
Private sellers will have to take their own photographs, prepare their own sales particulars and measure up their own house, not to mention guess what price they should be asking and take a punt on which solicitor they should use. Private sellers will also have to vet purchasers for affordability and proceedability and keep the sale on track once the purchaser gets cold feet after reading the survey report. These are all rather onerous tasks that people pay their estate agent to do for them.
Tesco have made noises recently about providing sellers with a web based solution to sell their house for as little as £199 as if buying a house was like buying a packet of peas. Google have similar plans although at least they don’t sell peas as well. Private seller’s websites have been about for many years and the Tesco and Google models are no different to those that have come and gone before. None of these private seller’s sites or internet only estate agents has gained any degree of market share in any part of the
You can pay as little as £2500 to an independent estate agent for selling the average house in the
The big issue is a shortage of stock
Ask any estate agent from Lands End to John O’groats how the market is and he’ll probably tell you that he doesn’t have enough property to sell. At Hadley we have taken on several new instructions during the last two weeks so things are certainly warming up, but why is it that sellers are reluctant to put their houses on the market for sale?
One lady called into my office the other day and told me she was reluctant to put her house up for sale because she literally couldn’t afford the cost of the home information pack. This is an indicator as to how severe the recession has been for some working people. I was able to tell the lady that we could make arrangements for her to pay for her HIP upon completion and I’m sure most agents can do the same. Our HIP cost £299 plus vat and although this is cheaper than most agents’ pack I can see how this additional cost imposed by the government has kept some sellers out of the market.
There are many potential sellers who also want to buy but they find themselves unable to borrow what they need to move up the ladder to a bigger property. This may be because their circumstances have worsened during the recession or because their lender isn’t prepared to lend at the same terms as they would have done before the financial crisis. Either way many people who want to move up simply can’t just yet.
Some sellers are not putting their houses up for sale because they can’t find a house to move to and so we have a chicken and egg situation developing. My advice to sellers is always to get a buyer first because if your dream home comes on the market someone who can proceed will buy it while you’re still filling in your home information pack questionnaire.
Some sellers believe that if they delay selling for another few months they will get a better price. Now although I don’t believe prices will fall again, I don’t think they are going to go up in a hurry either due to the length of time it will take for the economy to return to sustainable growth and full employment. In short, your home may be worth a little more in 12 months time but not a lot more. The media might like to talk up price increases but remember they using national figures and these are hugely distorted by the price rises we’ve seen in London and the south east where all the bankers and footballers live.
The worst winter for 30 years hasn’t exactly put people in the mood for buying or selling either. Whatever happened to that Mediterranean climate we were told to expect by the climate change lobby?
So don’t be shy, spring is at last in the air and the market is hungry for properly priced properties of all types in good residential areas. If your house is the only one in your street with a for sale board in the garden you might do rather well.
How will the result of the general election affect the property market?
At Hadley Taylor we are preparing our business for an increase in transactions in 2010. We expect to do 40% more transactions this year than last. Last year we did 80% more than the previous year. This sounds impressive but I have to add here that 2008 couldn’t have been any worse if we’d been writing a horror movie script. This predicted increase in activity is due to the fact that many buyers and sellers have put their plans on the back burner during the last couple of years but many of these folk will see 2010 as the year to move on. The obvious blot on the landscape this year is the general election in May.
Election year is always a time of uncertainty for the housing market. Estate agents tend to want to see the back of elections as soon as possible because they lead to uncertainty in the minds of buyers and sellers alike.
So let’s look at some of the possible outcomes and their effect on the housing market.
Labour could still win it of course, due to the legion of voters who make up the client state. Under a fourth term of Labour we could see the housing market become an area the government targets to raise more tax in its efforts to pay down the deficit. We could see increases in stamp duty and the introduction of capital gains tax on your primary residence. Estate agents may face more legislation of their businesses under Labour as we have seen in recent years and this will inevitably push up the cost of sale.
The worse case scenario however is for a hung parliament. A hung parliament would result in a weak government with little power in the House of Commons to push through the sort of measures required to reduce the deficit at the necessary rate. The consequence of this could be a downgrading of the credit rating of UK plc or even sovereign default. A hung parliament, although unlikely, is a possibility and would be very bad news for the economy and the housing market resulting in a double dip.
If the Conservatives win we could see a more settled second half of the year for property but the sobering numbers that will come out of the treasury once victory has been secured will keep the lid on growth in the economy, wages and consequently in house price inflation for some considerable time as the age of inevitable austerity begins. David Cameron has pledged to scrap home information packs if the Tories win power. The controversial packs have already cost sellers about £700m during a time when the housing market could have done with a break so this will be good news to some. The Energy Performance Certificates which I have to say are probably the most useful part of the packs will probably stay under the Tories however and this can’t be a bad thing. The much heralded increase in the inheritance tax threshold will be welcome news for all those elderly people hoping to leave their property to the next generation.
Whatever the outcome of the election, I think we are in for the most fascinating few months we’ve had in this country for about 30 years.
HIP’s finally bite the dust
The demise of home information packs has been welcomed by the National Association of Estate Agents, The Law Society and the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors. So one might ask why these professional bodies weren’t asked their opinion before the HIP’s debacle and the answer is that they were asked, but their contributions to the consultation were largely ignored.
The new coalition government has, however, decided to continue with energy performance certificates for residential properties sold in the
Although most estate agents will have a great deal of sympathy with the thousands of people who qualified themselves to prepare these packs it doesn’t change the fact that these people were providing a service that increased the cost of sale at a point in the cycle when the market was at it’s most stressed. Many of these people will, I hope, continue to find gainful employment producing energy performance certificates instead.
Since the suspending of HIP’s we have seen a welcome return to the market of the speculative seller which has increased the number of properties on our books.